Future babble : why pundits are hedgehogs and foxes know best / Dan Gardner.
| Author/creator | Gardner, Dan, 1968- |
| Format | Book |
| Publication Info | New York, N.Y. : Plume, 2012, ©2011. |
| Description | xi, 305 pages ; 21 cm |
| Subjects |
| Contents | The unpredictable world -- In the minds of experts -- The experts agree : expect much more of the same -- Unsettled by uncertainty -- Everyone loves a hedgehog -- When prophets fail -- The end is nigh. |
| Abstract | We are awash in predictions--in newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, whether housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it. Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs"--who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change--become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong, while "foxes"--who are more equivocal in their judgments--are simply more accurate. |
| Bibliography note | Includes bibliographical references (p. [287]-294) and index. |
| ISBN | 9780452297579 |
| ISBN | 0452297575 |