The turnout myth voting rates and partisan outcomes in American national elections / Daron R. Shaw and John R. Petrocik.
| Author/creator | Shaw, Daron R., 1966- |
| Other author | Petrocik, John R., 1944- |
| Other author | Oxford University Press. |
| Format | Electronic |
| Publication Info | New York, NY : Oxford University Press, [2020] |
| Description | x, 200 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm |
| Supplemental Content | Full text available from Oxford Scholarship Online |
| Subjects |
| Portion of title | Voting rates and partisan outcomes in American national elections |
| Contents | If only our people had turned out! -- American voter turnout : a history and portrait -- A theoretical exploration of turnout and voting -- Turnout and partisan vote choice : over time and across states and districts -- Turnout and partisan vote choice : over time and within states and districts -- Congressional district results : a further look -- Why is the conventional wisdom wrong? -- If turnout isn't driving election swings, what is? -- Some final data and thoughts on the link between turnout and vote choice. |
| Abstract | This book refutes the widely held convention that high turnout in national elections advantages Democratic candidates while low turnout helps Republicans. It examines over fifty years of presidential, gubernatorial, Senate, and House election data to show there is no consistent partisan effect associated with turnout. The overall relationship between the partisan vote and turnout for these offices is uncorrelated. Most significant, there is no observable party bias to turnout when each office or seat is examined through time. In some states, across the decades, gubernatorial and senatorial contests show a pro-Democratic bias to turnout; in others an increase in turnout helps Republicans. The pattern repeats for House elections during the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and through the 2010s. The analysis demonstrates that, within the range that turnout varies in American elections, it is the participation and abstention of easily influenced, less engaged citizens - peripheral voters - that move the outcome between the parties. These voters are the most influenced when the short-term forces of the election - differential candidate appeal, issues, scandals, and so forth - help the parties. Since these influences advantage Republicans as often as Democrats, the oscillation in turnout that coincides with pro-GOP and pro-Democratic forces leaves turnout rates inconsequential overall. The connections between short-term forces and the election cycle dominate the inconsistent partisan effects of turnout. |
| Bibliography note | Includes bibliographical references (179-184) and index. |
| Access restriction | Available only to authorized users. |
| Technical details | Mode of access: World Wide Web |
| Genre/form | Electronic books. |
| LCCN | 2021285449 |
| ISBN | 9780190089450 (hbk.) |
| ISBN | 0190089466 |
| ISBN | 9780190089467 (pbk.) |
| ISBN | 0190089458 |