| Contents |
Introduction : why sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction (S2S)? / Frédéric Vitart, Andrew W. Robertson -- Weather forecasting : what sets the forecast skill horizon? / Zoltan Toth, Roberto Buizza -- Weather within climate : sub-seasonal predictability of tropical daily rainfall characteristics / Vincent Moron, Andrew W. Robertson, Lei Wang -- Identifying wave processes associated with predictability across time scales : an empirical normal mode approach / Gilbert Brunet, John Methven -- The Madden-Julian oscillation / Steven J. Woolnough -- Extratropical sub-seasonal to seasonal oscillations and multiple regimes : the dynamical systems view / Michael Ghil, Andreas Groth, Dmitri Kondrashov, Andrew W. Robertson -- Tropical-extratropical interactions and teleconnections / Hai Lin, Jorgen Frederiksen, David Straus, Cristiana Stan -- Land surface processes relevant to sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction / Paul A. Dirmeyer, Pierre Gentine, Michael B. Ek, Gianpaolo Balsamo -- Midlatitude mesoscale ocean-atmosphere interaction and its relevance to S2S prediction / R. Saravanan, P. Chang -- The role of sea ice in sub-seasonal predictability / Matthieu Chevallier, François Massonnet, Helge Goessling, Virginie Guémas, Thomas Jung -- Sub-seasonal predictability and the stratosphere / Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Chaim Garfinkel, Edwin P. Gerber, Peter Hitchcok, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Amanda C. Maycock, Michael Sigmond, Isla Simpson, Seok-Woo Son -- Forecast system design, configuration, and complexity / Yuhei Takaya -- Ensemble generation : the TIGGE and S2S ensembles / Roberto Buizza -- GCMs with full representation of cloud microphysics and their MJO simulations / In-Sik Kang, Min-Seop Ahn, Hiroaki Miura, Aneesh Subramanian -- Forecast recalibration and multimodel combination / Stefan Siegert, David B. Stephenson -- Forecast verification for S2S timescales / Caio A.S. Coelho, Barbara Brown, Laurie Wilson, Marion Mittermaier, Barbara Casati -- Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of weather extremes / Frédéric Vitart, Christopher Cunningham, Michael DeFlorio, Emanuel Dutra, Laura Ferranti, Brian Golding, Debra Hudson, Charles Jones, Christophe Lavaysse, Joanne Robbins, Michael K. Tippett -- Pilot experiences in using seamless forecasts for early action : the "ready-set-go!" approach in the Red Cross / Juan Bazo, Roop Singh, Mathieu Destrooper, Erin Coughlan de Perez -- Communication and dissemination of forecasts and engaging user communities / Joanne Robbins, Christopher Cunningham, Rutger Dankers, Matthew DeGennaro, Giovanni Dolif, Robyn Duell, Victor Marchezini, Brian Mills, Juan Pablo Sarmiento, Amber Silver, Rachael Trajber, Andrew Watkins -- Seamless prediction of monsoon onset and active/break phases / A.K. Sahai, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, Phani M. Kirshna, D.R. Pattanaik, S. Abhilash -- Lessons learned in 25 years of informing sectoral decisions with probabilistic climate forecasts / Refael Terra, Walter E. Baethgen -- Predicting climate impacts on health at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales / Adrian M. Tompkins, Rachel Lowe, Hannah Nissan, Nadège Martiny, Pascal Roucou, Madeleine C. Thomson, Tetsuo Nakazawa -- Epilogue / Andrew W. Robertson, Frédéric Vitart. |
| Abstract |
The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. |
