Bond supply and excess bond returns / Robin Greenwood, Dimitri Vayanos.

Author/creator Greenwood, Robin
Other author Vayanos, Dimitri.
Other author National Bureau of Economic Research.
Format Electronic
Publication InfoCambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research,
Supplemental ContentFull text available from NBER Working Papers

SeriesNBER working paper series ; working paper 13806
Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ; working paper no. 13806. UNAUTHORIZED
Summary "We examine empirically how the maturity structure of government debt affects bond yields and excess returns. Our analysis is based on a theoretical model of preferred habitat in which clienteles with strong preferences for specific maturities trade with arbitrageurs. Consistent with the model, we find that (i) the supply of long- relative to short-term bonds is positively related to the term spread, (ii) supply predicts positively long-term bonds' excess returns even after controlling for the term spread and the Cochrane-Piazzesi factor, (iii) the effects of supply are stronger for longer maturities, and (iv) following periods when arbitrageurs have lost money, both supply and the term spread are stronger predictors of excess returns"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
General noteTitle from PDF file as viewed on 6/13/2008.
Bibliography noteIncludes bibliographical references.
Access restrictionAvailable only to authorized users.
Other formsAlso available in print.
Technical detailsMode of access: World Wide Web
Genre/formElectronic books.
LCCN 2008610596

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