Estimating market implications from corn and soybean yields under climate change in the United States / Jayson Beckman, Maros Ivanic, and Noé J Nava.

Author/creator Beckman, Jayson author.
Other author Ivanic, Maros author.
Other author Nava, Noé J., author.
Other author United States. Department of Agriculture. Economic Research Service issuing body.
Format Electronic
Publication[Washington, D.C.] : Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2023.
Description1 online resource (ii, 25 pages) : color illustrations, color maps.
Supplemental Contenthttps://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo223031
Subjects

SeriesEconomic research report ; no. 324
Economic research report (United States. Department of Agriculture. Economic Research Service) ; no. 324. ^A613631
Summary The United States is one of the largest producers and exporters of corn and soybeans globally partly because of yields that are among the highest in the world. However, a changing climate could affect these yields, which could ultimately affect production and the availability of products for export. In this report, the authors estimate that U.S. corn yields could increase 3.1 percent and soybean yields could decrease 3.0 percent in 2036 relative to 2016, based on climate projections. These results are driven primarily by the increased frequency of periods of extreme heat and declines in precipitation in counties east of the 100th meridian part of the United States. These estimates are then used in a simulation model to explore the market implications from these yield projections, and those results indicate that these yield changes could affect U.S. production and ultimately trade. The estimated growth in U.S. corn yields increases corn production that could ultimately affect the amount of corn the United States has available to export. Holding yields in other countries fixed, the model indicates that U.S. corn exports increase 0.36 percent (the equivalent of $63 million). The decline in soybean yields decreases production, leading to a 1.17-percent drop in U.S. exports (the equivalent of $319 million) based on 2016 exports
General note"October 2023."
General noteIn scope of the U.S. Government Publishing Office Catalog and Indexing Program (C&I) and Federal Depository Library Program (FDLP).
General noteGPO Cataloging Record Distribution Program (CRDP).
Bibliography noteIncludes bibliographic references (pages 22-24)
Source of descriptionDescription based on online resource; title from PDF title page (USDA, viewed November 22, 2023).
Standard identifier# 10.32747/2023.8134358.ers
GPO item number0042-V (online)
Govt. docs number A 93.73:324

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